Michael A. Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute lays out a convincing case in this month’s Far Eastern Economic Review that Beijing may be successfully integrating economic reforms with their authoritarian system and becoming a “mature facist state“. If his assertion proves to be true, it may put the lie to the neoconservative theorem that where goods flow freely across borders, peace is the result.

Nonetheless, the short history of classical fascism suggests that it is only a matter of time before China will pursue confrontation with the West. That is built into the dna of all such regimes. Sooner or later, Chinese leaders will feel compelled to demonstrate the superiority of their system, and even the most impressive per capita GDP will not do. Superiority means others have to bend their knees, and cater to the wishes of the dominant nation. Just as Mussolini saw the colonization of Africa and the invasion of Greece and the Balkans as necessary steps in the establishment of a new fascist empire, so the Chinese are likely to demand tribute from their neighbors—above all, the Chinese on the island nation of Taiwan, in order to add the recovery of lost territory to the regime’s list of accomplishments. Even today, at a time when the regime is seeking praise, not tribute, in the run-up to the Olympic Games, there are bellicose overtones to official rhetoric.

How, then, should the democracies deal with China? The first step is to disabuse ourselves of the notion that wealth is the surest guarantor of peace. The West traded with the Soviet Union, and gave them credits as well, but it did not prevent the Kremlin from expanding into the Horn of Africa, or sponsoring terrorist groups in Europe and the Middle East. A wealthy China will not automatically be less inclined to go to war over Taiwan, or, for that matter, to wage or threaten war with Japan.

Indeed, the opposite may be true—the richer and stronger China becomes, the more they build up their military might, the more likely such wars may be. It follows that the West must prepare for war with China, hoping thereby to deter it. A great Roman once said that if you want peace, prepare for war. This is sound advice with regard to a fascist Chinese state that wants to play a global role.

It is well worth your time to read the whole article. It’s also worth noting that Russia could easily make a similar transition – and is showing signs of making the attempt – and return to the world stage as a dangerous peer competitor to the U.S. and the E.U.

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This entry was posted on Friday, May 30th, 2008 and is filed under China, Defense Policy, Foreign Policy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.