Most of us that were around in 2003 still remember the run up to the invasion of Iraq well. And, it seems the puzzle pieces are falling into place with Iran. First, there was the recent tough talk from Secretary Gates and Admiral Mullen.

Last week, there were Admiral Mullen’s comments:

Late last week, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, pointed to the Qods Force for its “increasingly lethal and malign influence” in Iraq. Adm. Mullen added that evidence would be publicized in the coming days that newly made Iranian armaments are being smuggled into Iraq at an increasing rate.

These reports echo the information I revealed in February about the Qods Force’s new military/political infrastructure, designed to expand its operations inside Iraq. Why now? Simply put, the ayatollahs and their primary mover and shaker in Iraq, the Qods Force, are going for broke before they lose their “Iraq opportunity.”

Then, on the 29th, Secretary Gates weighed in:

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday that sending a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf could serve as a ” reminder” to Iran, but he said it is not an escalation of force.

Speaking to reporters after meeting with Mexican leaders, Gates said heightening U.S. criticism of Iran and its support for terrorist groups is not a signal that the administration is laying the groundwork for a strike against Tehran.

Still, he said Iran continues to back the Taliban in Afghanistan.

“I do not have a sense at this point of a significant increase in Iranian support for the Taliban and others opposing the government in Afghanistan,” Gates said. “There is, as best I can tell, a continuing flow, but I would still characterize it as relatively modest.”

And, just yesterday, there were four more developments. The first was the release of a key State Department report:

Iran is the most active state sponsor of terrorism, the United States State Department said in a new report assessing terrorism worldwide.

The report was released a day after a new U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in the Gulf, fueling fears of a military strike on Iran.

The annual report, Country Reports on Terrorism 2007, said elements of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were directly involved in planning and supporting terrorist acts throughout the region and “continued to support a variety of groups in their use of terrorism to advance their common region goals.”

The release was followed by comments by the Secretary of State concerning Iran’s nuclear program:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice raised fresh doubts Thursday about the nature of Iran’s nuclear program, saying if the clerical state really wanted only an avenue to peaceful atomic energy it could quickly have it.

Instead, Iran is stonewalling on an attractive deal to trade away only the part of the program that could result in a nuclear weapon, Rice said ahead of a gathering of the U.N. nations that have presented a carrot-or-stick package to Iran.

“I continue to suspect this is not at all about a civil nuclear program,” Rice told reporters traveling with her. Iran’s insistence that it be able to enrich uranium on its terms seems at cross-purposes with that goal, Rice said.

“One has to wonder what is going on here.”

And Admiral Mullen warned that the post-election period would be a time of instability:

The nation’s top military officer warned yesterday that the transition to a new American president will mark a “time of vulnerability” as the United States fights two wars, and he said military leaders are already actively preparing for the changing of the guard.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Navy Adm. Michael G. Mullen, said the U.S. political transition will be “extraordinarily challenging,” particularly as the military is engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and faces interference in both countries from Iran.

“Iran is not going away,” Mullen said. “We need to be strong and really in the deterrent mode, to not be very predictable” regarding Iran, he said in a meeting with editors and reporters at The Washington Post.

Admiral Mullen also commented again on Iran’s negative influence in the region:

Iran’s “irresponsible influence” in the Middle East including pursuit of nuclear weapons and support of terrorism creates a “perfect nightmare” threatening the entire region, the top US military official warned.

Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday Iran is at the core of challenges in the volatile region, particularly its efforts in neighboring Iraq and threats against Israel.

“Iran is a regional spoiler, and is bent on egregiously undermining efforts to stabilize the Middle East,” Mullen told American Jews gathered at a conference here to mark Israel’s 60th anniversary.

“Their actions, their irresponsible influence extends well beyond Iraq’s borders,” he said. “Their pursuit of nuclear arms, their sponsorship of terrorism — and the perfect nightmare that is the nexus of the two — is a threat to Israel and throughout the region.”

Even news from outside the administration is ominous. First, a former CIA insider commented on his impressions the situation:

Ray McGovern, a career U.S. intelligence officer, believes President Bush and his administration have no intention of leaving Iraq and are preparing to attack Iran in the next few months.

“I believe George Bush and Dick Cheney plan to take care of Iran before they leave office. But what will happen then, if Iran cuts supplies coming to Iraq through Kuwait? That could threaten tens of thousands of our soldiers,” McGovern said during a Tuesday interview with the Gazette.
…
McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years from the administrations of John F. Kennedy to George H.W. Bush.

During the Ronald Reagan administration, McGovern prepared daily security briefs for Reagan and his top officials. Under President George H.W. Bush, McGovern was a senior CIA analyst who prepared daily presidential security briefs.
…
McGovern believes there is a strong likelihood Bush will attack Iran before leaving office.

He also praised Navy Adm. William J. Fallon, commander of the U.S. Central Command between March 2007 and March 2008, when Bush replaced him with Gen. David Petraeus.

Fallon was forced out shortly after Esquire magazine published a profile of his career that highlighted his strong opposition to any war with Iraq and his desire to reduce troop levels in Iraq.

“Fallon was our last hope,” McGovern said.

And then sources in Western Europe weighed in:

The U.S. military has drafted and won approval for attack plans ir response to an Iran attack.

Western diplomatic sources said the U.S. military’s Central Command has submitted plans for an air and naval strike on Iran. The sources said the plan envisioned escalating tensions that would peak with an Iranian-inspired insurgency strike against U.S. military assets in the Gulf.

Either there’s a very elaborate plan to spook Iran into compliance being executed, or we’re seeing the beginning of a case being made. Fasten your seatbelts, this could be an interesting summer.

Read part 2 of this series.

Trackposted to Diary of the Mad Pigeon, Rosemary’s Thoughts, Allie is Wired, Woman Honor Thyself, Right Truth, The World According to Carl, The Pink Flamingo, Cao’s Blog, Wolf Pangloss, and A Newt One, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

This entry was posted on Friday, May 2nd, 2008 and is filed under Foreign Policy, Iran. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.