A Hasty Plan For The Defense Of Georgia
Note: So, somebody asked the question UltimaRatioRegis and I were probably both expecting: what does Georgia do? URR has not had time to respond to my draft, I’m not a land guy and this is not a conventional military operation, so this is probably wanting in several respects. Feel free to comment and when and if URR gets back to me I’ll update the post.
I’d say Georgia’s first step is to not do anything stupid to invite an invasion. If you assume Georgia can’t avoid an invasion, it seems to me the best they can do is try and draw it out, attract as much attention in the media as possible and exploit the new media for as long as possible. Following is what I would recommend, not what I think Georgia might do (which is likely to be a little wild eyed from a political perspective).
Georgian Political Objectives
- Maintain the status quo politically
- Russia and the EU/OSCE keep observers in place in Ossetia and Abkhazia and continue to press for a permanent political solution
- Keep NATO from backing away from eventual membership for Georgia – Relocate the elected government of Georgia to a safe haven if remaining in T’blisi is untenable
- Carry out aggressive information operations through the mainstream and new media to win popular sympathy abroad
Georgian Military Objectives
- Prevent or significantly delay the fall of T’blisi
- Secure a safe haven to harbor the legitimate government of Georgia in the event they have to leave T’blisi
- Prevent or make it very costly for Russia to maintain overland routes to Russia and Poti
- Draw out the conflict to support information operations
Russian Centers Of Gravity
- Military power, particularly air power and armor
- Support of Russian minority groups in Georgia
Russian Centers Of Vulnerability
- Prone to overreach and brutality
- Forces poorly adapted to low intensity and COIN operations
- Poor communications strategy and international credibility
- Dependent upon foreign investment and energy sales
The mismatch between Russian and Georgian military forces does not leave Georgia with the option to stand and fight for long in a conventional sense. Maintaining some integrity of government and communications with the outside to rapidly build international pressure on Russia are key.
Invite in as many Western observers as will come to provide objective accounts of events prior to hostilities and increase international pressure should hostilities break out. Remind the West at every opportunity that if Russia takes control of Georgia, they will control all the gas and oil pipelines from Central Asia.
Prepare one or two safe havens for key members of the government and reliable means to communicate with international capitols and news organizations in the event Russia cuts normal phone and satellite links. Consider aquiring satellite phones, positioning in an area along the Turkish border with access to Turkish cell networks or using private or corporate satellite links to the outside.
Close Georgian air space from sunset to sunrise if hostilities appear probable. Close it completely if hostilities appear imminent or break out. When airspace is closed, if it flies, it dies.
Encourage the population to share information on Russian movements, dispositions or activities by unconventional means. Texting on cell phones, Twitter, Internet bulletin boards and news groups should be utilized as long as possible.
Learn from the Swiss. Begin preparing key bridges, airfields and port facilities to be disabled or destroyed if necessary. Learn from the Kosovar Serbs, too. Prepare multiple emplacements for tanks, artillery pieces, mortars and crew-served weapons. Fill every emplacement that doesn’t have a real weapon with something that will look like a weapon from a distance. Move the real systems and some of the decoys frequently to stress Russian reconnaisaince assets and sorties, increase confusion and maximize the number of strikes to build international pressure.
Establish partisan groups of volunteers mixed with a few military members for each group. Make sure they have appropriate light weapons – rifles and RPGs – and plenty of ammunition early. Establish a method to quickly mobilize them to pre-determined positions to disrupt Russian movements and logistics.
Tell the population to stock up on essentials.
Oh, and lastly, Georgia should ask President Obama if they can borrow some hope. They’ll need it.
Get the Yankee Sage delivered!
Bio: I am currently a Professor of Security Studies, hold a BS in Management and an MA in National Security Studies, and am pursuing an MA in Systematic and Philosophical Theology. I've written for Navy Times, Proceedings, Armed Forces Journal and a number of blogs. As a 24-year veteran of the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve, I attained the rank of Commander, deployed five times for four different conflicts and served as a Foreign Area Officer and a Surface Warfare Officer. During my 7 years in the private sector, I worked in the fields of information technology and publishing, and even ran for public office once.
April 23rd, 2009 at 10:59
The few remaining SU-25 ground attack fighters should already be dispersed, and I would be trying to get my hands on every last available Israeli ATGM…with delivery by air if possible. As noted previously, I would be making as many EFP mines as time permits.
It’s a shame they didn’t get a hold of those Merkava MBT’s, but them’s the breaks.
I’m wondering of the Russians will make a hash of gaining air superiority like they did last time. Georgian aircraft continued to conduct airstrikes throughout the conflict, and Georgian SAM suppression of Russian air assets seemed fairly effective. Strange.
April 23rd, 2009 at 13:04
Forget the hope, they need a wing and a prayer…..
Just from memory they have a major east west highway that runs the length of the country. Not many bridges as it runs parallel to the rivers. Speaking of rivers they have 3 or 4 that can handle traffic….. Only thing they have in their favor is the massive mountain range at the north border.
I hope that they can hold the line, because help I’m afraid wont come quickly if at all under our current “leadership”. The Israels are their friends as well, so hopefully IMI and Elbit have been working hard to help.
A democratic free society is what we need more of in that region not less….
April 23rd, 2009 at 15:44
IIRC, Ossetia has a tunnel at the north end that leads to Russia, and Abkhazia has a rail line and highway that lead to Russia. I would anticipate that Russian logistics could be made more difficult by several orders of magnitude if those lines were cut, along with making the ports unusable.
April 23rd, 2009 at 16:31
There is no doubt that, despite the pro-Russian posting on the thread about the other side of this coin, that independent Georgia will be gone within a couple of weeks of the commencement of hostilities. Neither Europe nor the United States will intervene in any way to aid Georgia.
The next thing to ponder is what the second order effects will be.
a) the effects on any dependent allies of the United States.
b) the effects on NATO.
c) the effects on the EU, given that Western Europe is dependent on Russian energy already.
d) an especial emphasis on the affects on the “near abroad”. How far are the former Warsaw Pact countries going to go in yielding sovereignty out of fear of Russia and knowing that there will be absolutely no help from the West.
e) economic effects. The EU has never been happy with the free market ways of the Eastern Europeans, viewing their work ethic and belief in less socialism and more capitalism a threat to the hegemony of the EU. Many in the EU would be glad to be rid of the competition. Further, since so much of the European banks’ problems are related to real estate deals in Eastern Europe, their loss to the West could be used to allow a ‘write down’ combined with government bailouts that would mitigate the EU’s problems.
Just some ideas for discussion.
Subotai Bahadur
April 23rd, 2009 at 19:13
Invading Georgia would be a “monumental blunder”. It will cost Russia far more than they can ever gain. Nations and people will come to hate and fear Russia again. Foreign Investors will flee. And so will Russians, as opportunities disappear.
Consider the problems a few Georgian terrorists could cause. Just one terrorist sitting in a beach front rental on the Bosporus with an ER Spike could hit a Russian oil tanker. The oil spill could cause Turkey to shut down the strait to oil traffic. Or consider a bomb left on a Russian subway car or a skyscraper.
Bargaining with the Georgians would be cheaper. Peace is better than war when you consider the cost.
April 24th, 2009 at 05:28
Couple of modifications on the media war. I would provide CNN and Fox News a fully paid for office each, with generator and sat. link, right smack dab in the path of any predicted Russian invasion route. Also a few hundred digital camcorders with good zoom spread around among emergency personnel and military. Should be fairly cheap and might even be able to get the gas line companies to pay for it. Also should be at least a half-dozen young documentary filmmakers who would be fairly cheap to bring in, shoot up a few gigabytes of film, and make sure each network has the good looking parts for their stock footage.
The biggest weapon the Georgians could have is a unified media “meme”. Something on the order of “In the news tonight. Russian tanks and attack aircraft once again threaten the tiny democratic nation of Georgia, and its critical gas pipelines to Europe…”
Closing airspace at night and shooting down unidentified fliers strikes me as a dangerous move, it invites the Russians to fly a “lost” passenger plane over, and “react” to the bloodthirsty Georgians who shot it down. Same thing for the partisan groups, far too easy for the Russians to manufacture a massacre, blame it on Georgian “right-wing death squads, funded and controlled by their government”, and use it as a pretext to invade (again).
The best and cheapest defense against a Russian invasion would be a brigade of US Marines in tanks, sitting on each invasion route, but we know that’s not happening any time soon.
April 24th, 2009 at 10:05
Dang! Is this the test Biden referred to during the presidential campaign?
Will P.O. be like Carter or Kennedy?
Yankee Sailor, this is my first visit to your site. Thanks for your work!
Commenters, very good posts! Thanks for your insights!
Salaam eleikum Y’all!
April 24th, 2009 at 10:08
Oh yeah, one last comment: it appears NATO has become a joke like the UN.
Salaam again!
May 1st, 2009 at 07:02
[...] Sailor does the hard work of laying out the vagaries of a Russian invasion and an advisable Georgian defense, which are both brief but top-notch. For each, YS approaches the issue from a high-level [...]