If you live in Israel, that is. Below is a civil defense poster from Israel’s Home Front Command reminding Israelis how long they’ve got to move to shelter when the sirens go off.

Most Americans–heck, most people–can’t conceive of living with such a threat for a short period, much less two generations.

There’s been an intriguing series of events playing out over the past few weeks that appear to be forming a pattern. If you recall the happenings in Iraq from two years ago, Abu Musab Zarqawi was said to be demoted from his position as the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. That ambiguity was removed with the death of Zarqawi in 2006 and he was succeeded by Abu Ayyub al-Masri.

Al-Masri made his public debut to much fanfare in jihadi circles, but his leadership has proven quite ineffectual, to the extent that the U.S. has slashed the reward for his capture from $5 million to a paltry $100,000 over the course of the last year.

Then, just this week, two new messages from Osama bin Laden were published in conjunction with Israel’s 60th birthday. The first was summarized by the superb new site, Jihadica, as follows:

In his address, Bin Laden stated the “Palestine question” is the chief cause of conflict between Western nations and the Muslim community. It is the ultimate reason why AQ attacked the U.S. on 9/11.

Not only does this represent a bit of historical revisionism on bin Laden’s part (his original struggle was over the presence of U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia) it was also a rebuke of Zawahiri’s recent statements that Iraq would remain the focus of their efforts.

The second message as summarized by a follower appears to refocus al Qaeda efforts entirely on the Palestinian conflict:

According to `Asqalani, Bin Laden has presented a complete program of action for the coming stage of the Jihadi movement, which is the liberation of Palestine.

1) Bin Laden explained that oppressive international order is in an alliance with Israel and its resources are at its disposal.

2) The apostate Arab regimes are the guardians of Israel’s security, so overthrowing these regimes will make liberating Palestine much easier.

3) The pressure of the repressive regimes causes the Islamic groups to abandon jihad on the justification that it harms the da`wa (spread of Islam).

4) Hezbollah is misleading the youth because it has duped them into thinking it is the only resistance to Israel and that any other resistance in southern Lebanon must give obeisance; it plays political games at the expense of the Muslim community; and it gives its allegiance to the Guardianship of the Jurist (i.e. the Iranian government).

5) Fighting and jihad are a “strategic choice” for the Muslim community to replace the strategic choice of the defeatist Arabs who submit to peace and recognize Israel.

6) A group of people must penetrate the borders of Palestine in order to resist the Israeli blockade.

This is, of course, a significant retooling of Bin Laden’s last grand strategy as communicated to Zarqawi:

The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq.

The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or amirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate- over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq, i.e., in Sunni areas, is in order to fill the void stemming from the departure of the Americans, immediately upon their exit and before un-Islamic forces attempt to fill this void, whether those whom the Americans will leave behind them, or those among the un-Islamic forces who will try to jump at taking power.

There is no doubt that this amirate will enter into a fierce struggle with the foreign infidel forces, and those supporting them among the local forces, to put it in a state of constant preoccupation with defending itself, to make it impossible for it to establish a stable state which could proclaim a caliphate, and to keep the Jihadist groups in a constant state of war, until these forces find a chance to annihilate them.

The third stage: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq.

The fourth stage: It may coincide with what came before: the clash with Israel, because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity.

In short, it looks to me like al Qaeda has decided to skip that whole Iraq thing and as a result, may have just issued a tacit acknowledgment of defeat in Iraq.

Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, The Pink Flamingo, third world county, Faultline USA, Woman Honor Thyself, Right Truth, and Right Voices, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Russian bomber jets resume Cold War sorties

Russia’s strategic bombers have resumed Cold War-style long-haul missions to areas patrolled by NATO and the United States, top generals said on Thursday.

A Russian bomber flew over a U.S. naval base on the Pacific island of Guam on Wednesday and “exchanged smiles” with U.S. pilots who had scrambled to track it, said Major-General Pavel Androsov, head of long-range aviation in the Russian air force.

“It has always been the tradition of our long-range aviation to fly far into the ocean, to meet (U.S.) aircraft carriers and greet (U.S. pilots) visually,” Androsov told a news conference.

“Yesterday we revived this tradition, and two of our young crews paid a visit to the area of the (U.S. Pacific Naval Activities) base of Guam,” he said.

Cost of Coast Guard’s Deepwater Project Rises Again

The Coast Guard said yesterday that two ships key to its modernization efforts are now expected to cost a combined $1.1 billion, an increase of about $255 million that will pay for extending their lifespans and making other improvements.

The 400-foot ships, known as national security cutters, are central to the Coast Guard’s Deepwater program, a $24 billion effort to modernize and replace its ships, helicopters and planes. Congress has criticized the program for cost increases, technical and design flaws, and the decision-making power allowed to the contractors, Lockheed Martin of Bethesda and Northrop Grumman of Los Angeles. In a January report, the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general said the cutters had design flaws.

Hamas sets up navy without a boat

It may not have any ships, sailors or seafaring equipment, but those logistical details have not prevented Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules the Gaza Strip, from launching a naval defence force.

“The requirements to join are that you have to be a good soldier, be fit, and know how to swim,” said the coastal patrol’s only confirmed member and commander, Jamil al-Dahashan, a veteran of the armed wing of Hamas.

The new force is expected to take to the waves or at least the beaches in a couple of weeks, where it will battle against prostitution and drug abuse. Eventually, when it has a boat, the navy will venture out to sea, where one of its main tasks will be to intercept Gazan fishermen who moonlight as informants for the Israelis.

U.S. Coast Guard Officer Indicted for Lying About Vessel Pollution

David G. Williams, a Chief Warrant Officer in the U.S. Coast Guard and the Main Propulsion Assistant for the Coast Guard Cutter RUSH, was indicted today by a federal grand jury for obstructing the investigation into his authorization of the direct overboard discharge of bilge wastes through the deep sink into the Honolulu Harbor, announced Ronald J. Tenpas, Acting Assistant Attorney General for the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division and U.S. Attorney for the District of Hawaii Edward H. Kubo Jr.

Williams was charged with two counts: one count of obstruction of justice and one count of making a false statement. As the Main Propulsion Assistant, he oversaw the maintenance of the main diesel engines and other machinery in the engine room for the Coast Guard Cutter RUSH, a 378 ft. high endurance cutter stationed in Honolulu.
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According to the indictment, on or about March 8, 2006, Williams authorized the direct discharge of bilge wastes into Honolulu Harbor. The Engineering Department personnel engaged in an unusual and abnormal operation and configuration of engine room equipment to pump bilge wastes from the aft bilge to the deep sink and overboard into Honolulu Harbor, thereby bypassing the “oily water separator” (OWS) system.